In How Progress Ends, Carl Benedikt Frey challenges the conventional belief that economic and technological progress is inevitable. For most of human history, stagnation was the norm, and even today progress and prosperity in the world鈥檚 largest, most advanced economies鈥攖he United States and China鈥攈ave fallen short of expectations. To appreciate why we cannot depend on any AI-fueled great leap forward, Frey offers a remarkable and fascinating journey across the globe, spanning the past 1,000 years, to explain why some societies flourish and others fail in the wake of rapid technological change.
By examining key historical moments鈥攆rom the rise of the steam engine to the dawn of AI鈥擣rey shows why technological shifts have shaped, and sometimes destabilized, entire civilizations. He explores why some leading technological powers of the past鈥攕uch as Song China, the Dutch Republic, and Victorian Britain鈥攗ltimately lost their innovative edge, why some modern nations such as Japan had periods of rapid growth followed by stagnation, and why planned economies like the Soviet Union collapsed after brief surges of progress. Frey uncovers a recurring tension in history: while decentralization fosters the exploration of new technologies, bureaucracy is crucial for scaling them. When institutions fail to adapt to technological change, stagnation inevitably follows. Only by carefully balancing decentralization and bureaucracy can nations innovate and grow over the long term鈥攆indings that have worrying implications for the United States, Europe, China, and other economies today.
Through a rich narrative that weaves together history, economics, and technology, How Progress Ends reveals that managing the future requires us to draw the right lessons from the past.
Awards and Recognition
- Winner of the PROSE Award in Economics, Association of American Publishers
- A Foreign Policy Best 快色直播 of the Summer
- Shortlisted for the Financial Times and Schroders Business Book of the Year Award
- A Financial Times Best Book of the Year
- A Five 快色直播 Best Book of the Year
- A Bloomberg Best Book of the Year
- One of OODALoop's Top 10 Technology, Security, and Business 快色直播 of 2025
- Longlisted for the Non-Obvious Book Awards
- Shortlisted for the Lionel Gelber Prize, University of Toronto
"In How Progress Ends, Carl Benedikt Frey offers a detailed and compelling account of how entrepreneurial, institutional and cultural forces have shaped periods of technological advance and stagnation across the world. In doing so, Frey, an economist and economic historian, draws timely lessons for today’s policymakers as the race for supremacy in artificial intelligence and green technology continues. . . . The present moment underscores the relevance of Frey’s writing. Business dynamism appears to be fading across much of the advanced world. . . . How Progress Ends is, therefore, an essential warning for the new era."鈥擳ej Parikh, Financial Times
"In How Progress Ends, Frey investigates the historical relationship between social structure and economic growth. His sweep is wide, stretching from the Western Zhou dynasty . . . to the European Union today. Both free marketeers and die-hard central planners may find that his conclusions challenge their view of the world. . . . [His] historical analysis has more than a little relevance to today."鈥擬arc Levinson, Wall Street Journal
"[Frey] is a world-leading expert on the sources and consequences of technological progress. In this important book, he analyses the . . . impact of artificial intelligence and, more broadly, the prospects for future economic growth."鈥擬artin Wolf, Financial Times
"Compelling. . . . A thoughtful, deeply informed study, How Progress Ends is both a historical journey and a warning. It challenges readers to recognize that progress is not self-sustaining and that the choices we make now will determine whether innovation continues or quietly fades away."鈥擬argaret Linak, Science
"It is tempting to assume that progress will always continue. How Progress Ends offers a sobering lesson: great leaps forward often grind to a halt when institutions fail to adapt."鈥擝ernard Marr, Forbes
"We are living in a golden age of big books on economic history. I would add Carl Benedikt Frey's, How Progress Ends: Technology, Innovation and the Fate of Nations, to the list of must reads."鈥�Adrian Wooldridge
"Compelling."鈥擜drian Wooldridge, Bloomberg
"On a giant macroeconomic and historical scale . . . [How Progress Ends] has huge lessons . . . for both the US and China. . . . it’s a heavyweight book that gives you a grand historical perspective on the key question of how to guarantee growth and continued technological advance."鈥擜ndrew Hill, Five 快色直播
"Progress isn’t a straight line. Frey traces a millennium of innovation to show the tension between the decentralization that can spur new technologies and the bureaucracy crucial to scaling them. Countries and institutions — from Britain to China — can either stifle change or scale it, getting the balance right matters now."鈥擳unde Olanrewaju CBE, Bloomberg
"With a nuanced study of the past thousand years of technological and economic development that has reshaped societies (and what slows innovation down), an economic historian considers the dichotomies between decentralized dynamism, centralized coordination and scaling to nurture technological progress."鈥擭athalie Atkinson, Globe & Mail
"[A] sweeping survey of a millennium of global economic growth and stagnation with an eye toward charting possible technological futures."鈥擝arry Eichengreen, Foreign Affairs
"[Frey's] broad yet deep survey of technology ranges across many nations and centuries, and pokes insightfully into myriad subjects, from Carolingian feudalism to patent law. The result is an incisive and stimulating consideration of a critical issue."鈥�Publishers Weekly
"A fascinating quasi-historical economic examination of why somesocieties flourish and others flounder amidst innovation."鈥�Library Journal
"This is a highly readable tour de force on technology and development. . . . Along the way Frey offers many anecdotes and insights that bring his subject matter to life."鈥擪evin Gardiner, Society of Professional Economists
"Progress is fragile. According to Carl Benedikt Frey, it requires a delicate sequence of innovation and efficient application. This explains why the world is now threatened by low growth. Vested interests dampen the US’s ability to leverage its decentralised economy for innovation, while greater centralisation in China puts their dynamism at risk. . . . Explaining something as complex as the success of economies through the neat lens of institutional and technological structure is a tall order. Frey does so with rigour."鈥擯hil Bell, LSE Review of 快色直播
"Frey demonstrates a commanding grasp of literatures ranging from Song dynasty statecraft to postwar industrial policy to the organizational sociology of Silicon Valley. . . . How Progress Ends is a wide-ranging synthesis that will interest economic historians, development economists, and scholars of innovation. Frey writes accessibly without sacrificing nuance and does not suppress complexity to shoehorn cases into a grand narrative. The book is a serious attempt to integrate disparate growth episodes into a coherent account and provides a useful framework for thinking about how progress happens and why it sometimes stalls."鈥擯edro Aldighieri, EH.Net
“In How Progress Ends, Carl Benedikt Frey gives a bold answer to one of history’s—and humanity’s—most essential questions: what drives technology and innovation? Epic in scope but packed with rigorous detail, it looks at what creates and reverses societal gains, asks how we should best manage the pursuit of new technologies, and hints at what, in the midst of an AI revolution, happens next. One of the key thinkers in the field, Frey delivers a grand, urgent must-read for anyone who cares about our past, present, and future.”—Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI
“Debates about AI fluctuate between hopes that it will bring us boundless capabilities and riches and fears that it will reduce us to servitude or worse. But in How Progress Ends, Carl Benedikt Frey shows that the real question is how human creativity and innovation will adapt to the age of powerful AI. I can’t imagine a better place to find answers than this far-ranging, intelligent book, which reminds us that human institutions and culture have always been critical to innovation and progress.”—Daron Acemoglu, Nobel Prize–winning economist and coauthor of Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity
“Frey masterfully reveals why some nations thrive while others stumble in periods of technological upheaval. At a time when AI reshapes our world, this book offers vital lessons for political leaders seeking to harness innovation while avoiding the institutional traps that have derailed progress throughout history.”—Tony Blair, Executive Chairman of the Tony Blair Institute and former Prime Minister of Britain and Northern Ireland
"How Progress Ends is a deeply researched effort to come to grips with one of the most interesting questions in economic history: what drove innovation and economic growth in the past, and can it be sustained? In the best traditions of giants such as Joseph Schumpeter and Mancur Olson, Frey provides a thoughtful and erudite analysis that nobody interested in these questions can ignore."—Joel Mokyr, author of A Culture of Growth: The Origins of the Modern Economy
“Progress is often thought of as a succession of technologies, but major new inventions from the steam engine to generative AI disrupt societies before they deliver improved living standards. How Progress Ends is a fascinating account of the way culture and institutions interact with new technologies, concluding that conditions in the United States and China today point to a future of stagnation despite their dominance at the AI frontier.”—Diane Coyle, author of The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters
“Why do some eras and countries experience rapid technological advances while others stagnate? In How Progress Ends, Carl Benedikt Frey draws on examples as diverse as Tsarist Russia, Mao’s China, and America’s AI boom to show how economic institutions promote or prevent technological progress, and how vested interests and monopolies mobilize to block change. Essential reading for anyone looking to understand the drivers of technological progress.”—Chris Miller, New York Times bestselling author of Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology
“How Progress Ends, by Carl Benedikt Frey, is a deeply engaging, well-written look at what actually drives progress, and why great, innovative nations end up stagnating. It’s a fascinating story of innovation, national ambition, and yes, failure. . . . The result is a powerful, and for many, surprising warning that both the U.S. and China are edging towards the same kind of stagnation. Ultimately, the book’s brilliance . . . adds a crucial, nuanced dimension to our understanding of progress. It’s not just the tech, it’s the culture you build around it. This is a must-read for this new age of industrial policy.”—Mohamed El-Erian, Financial Times & Schroders Business Book of the Year 2025 Ceremony
